Durham pushes for airport at Pickering

A review of the KPMG Aviation Sector report on the future of the Pickering lands once again makes a strong case for the development of a modern, 21st century airport, according to the top official of Durham Region.

In one of the projected scenarios, the KPMG report mentions a future need for an airportby 2036. Durham officials believe an airport at Pickering will meet the growing demand in the eastern Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ontario, as a whole.

“We have an opportunity to make Canada’s newest airport a model of sustainability; built with renewable materials and a shared space that supports our agricultural community,” said John Henry, Regional Chair and Chief Executive Officer. “This is our chance to show leadership, creating an airport that is designed with the smallest possible carbon footprint and the biggest possible impact on our economy and quality of life.”

Last week, Transport Canada released its KPMG Aviation Sector Analysis, which confirmed that the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) needs a new airport in 2036. In the past 20 years, international air travel for Canadian airports has more than doubled (up 108 per cent), said a Durham Region media release.

It went on to say that the report recommended that the Pickering Airport Lands could be used for services, such as:

• Passenger airport: Allowing air carriers to provide domestic point-to-point air service (travel within Canada), since domestic passenger traffic for all Canadian airports grew by 53 per cent from 2000 to 2015.
• Aviation-related services: Airports provide connectivity, which means they attract companies in aviation, aerospace and related services and industries.
• E-commerce/cargo: Supporting air cargo services for the GTA—a highly-desirable option for e-commerce firms that might be considering expansion operations within the GTA. It’s also an area that has seen significant growth in recent years, in part due to affordable and high-frequency air transportation.

The report looked at five options for the federally owned Pickering Airport lands, which were set aside more than 46 years ago (in 1972) for airport development. With a complex planning cycle for such a large and complex infrastructure project such as an airport, planning will need to begin now.

“Even with these positive opportunities, commercial developers still are not prepared to make large investments within our regions, without a policy commitment from the federal government. Yet, the positive impacts of this airport go far beyond our borders,” said Henry.

“It can reduce travel times for those who live east of Toronto—including those in Peterborough County and points further east—via excellent access to Highway 407 and its connections from highways 412, 418 and 401. This also means Durham residents will spend less time commuting to work and more time in our community—or at home with their loved ones,” he added.

The regions of Durham and York, and the City of Pickering, believe this new airport will continue to drive economic development throughout Durham, York and the entire province. Connected by air, road and rail, this eastern airport will be a hub for innovation and growth for decades to come.

Pickering may need an airport by 2036: KPMG

KPMG Aviation Sector Analysis – Supply and Demand Report

Stakeholder Consultations (pg. 41-43)

• Airport operators are in favour of a new airport in Pickering, citing general lack of aviation capacity east of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with pending closure of Buttonville Airport
• All municipalities showed strong support for development of the airport on the lands and stressed lost economic development opportunities due to inaction
• Commercial developers are not prepared to make large investments in the region without policy commitment from federal government towards development of the airport lands
• Industry organizations and local interest groups are in favour of new airport on lands as replacement for closure of Buttonville Airport

Impact of Key Regional Developments (pg. 44-49)

• Provincial government expects GTA to be the fastest growing part of the province. By 2025, it will account for 50 per cent of the provincial population
• GTA will have a population of 9.5 million by 2041
• GTA’s growing population will maintain a strong demand for air travel with rising population of immigrants strengthening community interest in oversea destinations
• Future airport in Pickering will have excellent access to Highway 407 with connections to Highways 412, 418 and 401
• Should GO Transit establish service to the Pickering Lands, via the Havelock rail corridor, rail connectivity could be provided to the existing GO network, providing connections to southern Ontario

Industry Trends and Requirements (pg. 54-60)

• Between 2000 and 2015, domestic passenger traffic for all Canadian airports grew by 53 per cent (or 2.9 per cent, per year)
• Transborder passenger traffic for all of Canada grew by 27 per cent (or 1.6 per cent, per year) for the 2000-2015 period
• Boeing has predicted that these domestic and transborder air service trends will continue through to 2035
• Since 2000, international traffic for all Canadian airports has more than doubled, with a growth of 108 per cent
• The growth of “non-traditional” services has grown, including new airlines serving Pearson airport (such as Hainan, Eva Air in 2010), more nonstop flight options (such as Air Canada now offers nonstop flights to Dubai, Seoul, etc.)
• Boeing expects these international services to grow rapidly over the 2015-2035 period
• Most international flights will continue to require extensive feed from North American services
• Aircraft fleets have shown robust growth over the past five years. Between 2011-2016, there was a 20 per cent increase in aircrafts
• Bombardier expects the business aviation segment to endure strong growth as the global economy recovers
• An effective and efficient airport system must provide sufficient capacity for corporate general aviation. Many corporate aircraft owners and operators are competing to obtain landing slots at the same airports where passenger air services are operated

Demand Forecasts (pg. 76)

• The proposed Pickering Airport will require large investments in aviation and surface transportation infrastructure and many levels of government and private businesses could participate. As such, more than a decade could be required for planning and construction of any major airport project on the Pickering Lands
• Therefore, a decision to develop a new Pickering Airport may need to be made before the catchment area has met the required threshold of traffic to justify the new airport

Pickering Lands Aviation Sector Analysis – Type and Role Report (pg. ii-v)

• Key factors analyzed: general aviation trends in eastern GTA, accommodating Low-Cost Carriers (LCC), providing domestic point-to-point service, reducing surface travel times to airports, accommodating the growth of e-commerce, and key regional developments
• General aviation trends in eastern GTA: There is currently relatively low industrial service within the southern Ontario airport network, with Peterborough Airport being the only airport to offer industrial general aviation as a primary type. Toronto Pearson, Billy Bishop, Oshawa and Hamilton Airports offer industrial general aviation as a secondary type. This influenced the consideration of an industrial airport option
• Accommodating low-cost carriers: Aviation industry trends are expected to influence the need and timing for a new airport on the Pickering Lands. LLC and Low-cost Carriers (ULCC) have been gaining popularity in Canada. While Hamilton Airport accommodates LCC and ULCC by Swoop, a new airport could provide operations for LCC or ULCC in the eastern GTA
• Providing domestic point-point service: Air carriers like WestJet and Air Canada could use a new airport to provide domestic point-to-point air service. Toronto Pearson may see smaller point-to-point domestic services displaced to increase runway capacity
• Reducing surface travel times: Congestion on the GTA’s road network is increasing as the region grows. Province predicts GTA will have a population of 9.5 million by 2041. Pickering airport could improve access to air service for travellers in the eastern GTA, Durham Region, Peterborough County and points further east
• Accommodating growth of e-commerce: E-commerce has experienced significant growth in recent years in part due to affordable and high frequency air transportation. An airport capable of supporting air cargo services in the east GTA would be highly desirable for e-commerce firms considering expansion operations in this area of the GTA

Potential Implications of Airport Options A (Industrial Airport) and Option B (Speciality Passenger Airport) (pg. 35)

• The assessment of five options for primary airport roles resulted in the identification of Option A (Industrial Airport) and Option B (Speciality Passenger Airport)
• Industrial Airport assumes a new airport on the Pickering Lands will be developed primarily for aviation-related industrial purposes. This include the development of large-scale aviation industrial businesses: aircraft/component manufacturing, maintenance, repair, overhaul firms, avionics installation/repair, or aircraft parts supply and distribution
• Specialty Passenger Airport explores developing a new airport for the accommodation of specialized passenger air services such as ULCCs, point-to-point domestic air service, and charted air services catered to leisure travel
• The primary infrastructure elements that define an industrial airport (Option A) are the prepared development lots that could support aviation industrial and commercial uses
• The elements that support specialty passenger airport (Option B) are an air terminal building and related groundside development
• The development of conceptual designs accords full coverage for a seven-runway airport on all lands. The concepts do not prelude a new airport on the lands developing further to accommodate more airport use options

Option A: Industrial Airport Analysis (pg. 36)

• In this option, the role of a new airport on the Pickering Lands would be a General Aviation Industrial and Corporate Airport
• Could provide large scale industrial aviation capacity within the study area
• Hamilton, Waterloo, Peterborough, and Lake Simcoe airports have sufficient runway length to accommodate the operational requirements of most industrial users. However, not all of these have the required land assembly for a large-scale aviation industrial operation such as Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul operator or aircraft manufacturer
• High-level review of industrial airports did not identify any purpose-built greenfield industrial airport in North America
• Typically, industrial airports are built on former military bases in the U.S. and former British Commonwealth Air Training Plan airports in Canada (such as Peterborough Airport began as a small General Aviation airport and through strategic investments has grown into an industrial airport)

Option B: Specialty Passenger Airport Analysis (pg. 37)

• Airport service types associated with Option B are focused on domestic scheduled and domestic transborder and international charter passenger air services
• Secondary service types in General Aviation Commercial and General Aviation Other are included in this option to account for anticipated closure of Buttonville Airport
• Additional secondary service types include Charter Air Cargo, which could support the transportation of goods via courier, air mail, and belly cargo
• These services would categorize a new airport on the Pickering Lands as a Potential Reliever and General Aviation Corporate Airport
• Developing an airport that supports service types applicable to Option B could stimulate demand for air travel and result in significant economic growth in the eastern GTA, specifically Durham Region
• This could be a consideration, when making a decision to develop a new airport on the Pickering Lands prior to 2036
• Travellers residing in the eastern GTA lack airport options in comparison to west GTA (Waterloo, Hamilton, Toronto Pearson and Billy Bishop airports)
• Reducing driving times to/from airports for residents within the eastern GTA is likely to increase the number of air trips of existing travellers and/or induce travel demand in non-travellers in the eastern GTA (especially if ULCC were to operate from a new airport on the Pickering Lands)
• Development of a new airport on the Pickering Lands could also stimulate significant regional economic growth as proximity to an airport that supports passenger and/or cargo air services is an important factor when large-scale companies make decisions regarding the location of their headquarters and other facilities to support their business. These companies often employ over 100 local workers who add overall economic activity within the region
• Although the Supply and Demand Report indicates additional passenger capacity is not required within the southern Ontario airports system prior to 2036, the long-term (beyond 2036) requirement for additional capacity should not be discounted

Option Evaluation (pg. 41)

1. Minimal service overlap with existing airports in the system – This approach seeks to minimize competition between existing airports by minimizing replication of service types. Assumes new airport on Pickering Lands will serve underserviced roles

1. Potential for financial and operational success – This approach seeks to identify the potential for financial and operational success of each option. Assumes entity responsible in establishing a new airport be invested in long-term financial and operational success