There is a massive election on the horizon for Canadians, set to take place in 2025. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his decision to step aside earlier this year, a clear change is on the horizon. This federal election will determine the direction of the country for the next several years.
Predicting the outcome of an election is no easy task, but many sportsbooks and websites attempt to do so by assigning odds to different parties, allowing users to wager on political outcomes. While betting on politics is not as popular as sports, there are still many around the world who enjoy this form of wagering. Let’s look at the parties that sportsbooks have given the highest odds of winning the upcoming federal election in Canada.
Conservative Party (-500)
If you were to check any of the top betting sites in Canada, you’d find the Conservatives listed as the heavy favourite for the election. It is not hard to see why. Current polls have the Conservatives ahead, although the margin appears to be narrowing. Many Canadians became increasingly discontented with Trudeau’s Liberal Party, prompting his resignation. A series of scandals and mistakes plagued the Liberal Party, and new Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre may be able to capitalize on this. While Polievre can be divisive, he has a strong base of support that can play a major role in lifting him to the highest office in the country. The odds favour him heavily here.
Liberal Party (+340)
The Liberal Party was left in disarray following Trudeau’s exit. The party has not yet chosen a leader, but the announcement of Mark Carney’s candidacy led to a slight boost in suppor. Carney is now the presumptive frontrunner to be the nominee for the Liberals, which has led some sportsbooks to boost the odds for the Liberals. However, they have a lot of ground to make up. Most national polls still show that the Conservatives are leading the Liberals by more than 10%. There is still a lot of time to go before the election, and the new leader of the party, whether it is Carney or Chrystia Freeland, the next likeliest candidate, will have the chance to demonstrate their viability to Canadians.
New Democratic Party (+7500)
Canadian federal politics has been dominated by the Liberal and Conservative parties for the entirety of the country’s history. The New Democratic Party, or NDP, has long been Canada’s most viable third party, a left-of-centre option for voters. The party has never ended up as the leader in a federal election, and oddsmakers do not give them much of a chance again this year. The NDP is led by Jagmeet Singh, who has been their leader since 2017. They are considered a serious longshot to disrupt this election, and the polls have them comfortably behind both the Conservatives and Liberals. There is still a significant contingent of the country who aligns with the NDP, but their achieving a historic victory seems unlikely.
Any Other Party (+10,000)
Sportsbooks also list this “any other party” category, but it feels extremely unlikely that there will be an additional party that manages to secure a win. The other major parties in Canada include the Green Party, Bloc Quebecois, and the People’s Party. Each of these parties serves a different role, appealing to more niche blocks of voters. None of these additional parties came remotely close to earning enough seats to form a government in the last election. Combined, the parties secured around 35 seats, mostly due to Bloc Quebecois’ sway in Quebec. Do not bet on this line.
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