Despite a relatively friendly interest rate environment, the Canadian housing market continued to sputter throughout the spring — and into the summer.
This trend deviates from previous cycles; lower rates have consistently sparked more home sales and higher prices in past years.
“With interest rates low and stable for some time now, a broader market turnaround may have been expected, but it seems that economic uncertainty is keeping more homebuyers on the sidelines,” says RPS-Wahi Economist Ryan McLaughlin.
He noted that consumer-survey responses suggest that concerns over the economy are materially affecting homebuying activity. For instance, one recent RBC poll found that three-quarters of would-be homebuyers over the next two years are acting more cautiously because of economic uncertainty.
In June, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index — which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country — declined by 3 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
This represents a slight pullback from May’s pace of depreciation (-4 per cent) but is generally consistent with what has been observed in the first half of the year.
Prices are down in a dozen of the most tariff-exposed housing markets in the country, which further suggests that economic factors remain a headwind.
While prices at the national level — as well as across most regions — trend lower, there are a handful of significant exceptions among the 13 major metro areas that RPS analyzes each month in addition to the Canada-wide index reading.
Growth Exceptions
For example, major Quebec markets and some secondary markets in the Prairies continue to experience significant price increases. Quebec City (+10 per cent) has been leading all big cities for price growth since September of 2024, when it overtook the then-piping-hot Calgary market. Montreal (+7 per cent) was second in terms of annual price growth in June, while Saskatoon and Winnipeg placed third, with 5 per cent year-over-year gains in each. These markets all boast relative affordability but are facing supply challenges.
Beyond the growth markets of Saskatoon and Winnipeg, the Prairies are mostly a picture of balance. Pricing momentum is running sideways in Calgary (-1 per cent), Edmonton (1 per cent), and Regina (0 per cent) — all of which had seen annual price percentage increases in the double digits as recently as 2025.
GTA Prices
Markets in B.C. and Ontario account for the sharpest declines and continue to weigh on the national index. The Greater Toronto Area’s condo correction is of a magnitude larger than Vancouver’s. This at least partly explains why prices are falling more rapidly in metro Toronto (-9 per cent) than in metro Vancouver (-5 per cent) on a year-over-year basis.
While sales increased in the GTA and Greater Vancouver last month, activity remains well below the long-run norm. A more prolonged period of elevated activity would be required to reverse pricing trends in these markets.
Although Toronto’s condo correction represents the most severe downturn of any segment in any major city, multi-family housing is showing signs of weakness more broadly. This is true even in more balanced markets, such as Calgary. Consequently, condos (-7 per cent) and row/townhouses (-8 per cent) are the fastest-depreciating housing types. However, prices for detached (-3 per cent) and semi-detached (-4 per cent) homes are still down meaningfully from the previous year.
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