For the month of May, the national RPS-Wahi House Price Index — which is based on the latest monthly actual home values in 1,000 towns and cities across the country — declined by 4 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
The Ontario government’s recently announced HST rebate for new homes coincided with a notable increase in new home sales, which include preconstruction and standing inventory.
The index drop matches the rate of annual rate of depreciation observed in April, when the index recorded the largest year-over-year drop in any month since July of 2023.
As in previous months, the headline figure masks stark regional differences. Specifically, continued and significant gains in Quebec and, to a lesser extent, secondary markets in the Prairies, balance in Calgary and Edmonton, and softness in B.C.’s Lower Mainland and southern Ontario.
Southern Ontario
The performance of southern Ontario markets may be further muted by a new mandate from the province.
“Some buyers in Ontario who might have otherwise purchased an existing home in Ontario this spring may have opted for a new-construction home instead,” says RPS Economist Ryan McLaughlin. “Similarly, others could be encouraged to continue holding off on a purchase until details of the rebate are fully finalized,” he continues.
The upshot of this is not negligible, given that sales activity in Ontario and B.C. can historically represent half or more of all sales in Canada. “When the Ontario housing market sneezes, Canadian real estate catches a cold,” adds McLaughlin.
Elsewhere, the effects of the reduction of international students allowed into the country may be putting further downward pressure on home prices. Halifax has seen a sharp decline in international students — whose presence likely supported elevated demand — and entered negative territory earlier this year.
As noted, Quebec markets continue to lead the charge. Although Quebec City has undergone years of strong price appreciation, it still remains relatively affordable compared to other markets. The metro area’s labour market has also outperformed. Together, these factors have sustained Quebec City’s status as a growth market.
Despite weaker employment conditions in Montreal, previous years of new housing construction falling short of demand has resulted in elevated values. Over time, the pace of annual price appreciation may slow down as reduced immigration levels create some slack in the market.
Is the Condo Category Reaching Bottom?
Categorized by property type, declines were also consistent with previous months. Detached and semi-detached properties are posting smaller declines than denser types of housing, including condo apartments and row/townhouses.
Although condo prices are still declining, the rate at which they are falling on an annual basis has not changed dramatically in recent months. In fact, since early 2025, year-over-year declines have remained between 5-7 per cent. With the seasonally typical summer slowdown approaching, a meaningful shift in market conditions in the coming months would be unexpected.
However, as price trends in the Canadian housing market evolve leading up to the fall market, the RPS-Wahi House Price Index will continue to be a leading indicator. Recent appraisals are one of the data sources for the index, which also uses land registry and other sales data, making it the most timely indicator of prices.
Wahi, a leading Canadian real estate platform, and Real Property Solutions (RPS), the foremost Canadian provider of property valuation services, today released their monthly house price index for April 2026.
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