As 2026 looms, Canadian industries are bracing for another year of economic recalibration. Profit forecasts differ but a few sectors are showing early signs of stable or growing profit margins.
Agriculture, oil and gas, gaming and real estate are all faced with different market conditions but what do the numbers really say? Is the optimism justified or are some sectors flying too close to risk?
Mobile Gaming: Margins Climb With Global Demand
What’s fueling the engine of profit in mobile gaming? Scale, global access, and smart mergers. Mobile now represents close to half of all gaming revenues worldwide, and is projected to represent 55 percent by 2026.
Canadian cities such as Vancouver and Toronto are at the heart of this trend, serving as launch pads for mobile titles that find audiences worldwide. Much of this profit push can be attributed to free-to-play games that are supported by microtransactions and ad revenue. But that’s not all there is to it. Rising right along with the mainstream mobile platforms are online casino real money services.
These platforms are gaining ground in Canada in part because they use local payment methods that Canadians already trust – like Interac or e-wallets. With new regulations slowly taking shape, the space could see its share of gaming profit increase further next year.
Oil and Gas: Production Growth May Boost Bottom Lines
Canada’s oil and gas industry is not one for bold optimism, but the 2026 outlook is looking increasingly confident. According to ATB Capital Markets, almost 9 out of 10 producers foresee an increase in production in the coming year. Gas producers are expecting gains of 6.3 percent, and oil producers are expecting a more modest 4.6 percent.
What’s fueling that optimism? Part of it is due to a resurgent demand for capital spending. GAS companies have started gearing up for an increase in capital investments of over 5 percent in 2026. Part of that is related to hopes for increased speed in pipeline approvals, a problem that is still a source of division within the sector.
About half of executives surveyed believe a new major pipeline could be approved within the next year, which would take out a major choke point for growth. Will the production growth be sufficient to turn the dial?
Or will poor infrastructure and policy paralysis keep returns flat? That depends not only on output, but on whether the oil and gas industry will actually be able to sell more of what it pumps out.
Farmland: Growth Tops Off as Grain Prices Fall
Farmland values might be going up but is the true profit picture going down? In the first half of 2025, Canadian farm land values increased by an average of 6 percent. Manitoba had the highest increase at 11.2 percent, followed by strong increases in Alberta, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.
Grains and oilseeds are forecast to be down 6 percent, suggesting tighter margins on many farms going into 2026. That’s a concern for crop producers who are dependent on crops for the bulk of their revenues, particularly in provinces where past price booms are beginning to level. The pressure is only increased by lower grain prices and a softening global market.
Not all signs are negative. The livestock sector is in a better position, and a fall in interest rates would help to alleviate debt servicing burdens. But overall, the disconnect between appreciation of land and operating profits is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Will land assets continue to increase if commodity returns continue to fall? Or is the market warning of a correction to come? For now, the answer is dependent on where you farm and what you’re selling.
Real Estate: Value Growth Slows, but Profit Gaps Remain
Is the real estate sector coasting on past momentum or recalibrating for a tighter, more focused run in 2026? The answer lies somewhere in between. Farmland price trends have offered a proxy for property confidence, but residential and commercial projects face a different reality.
High borrowing costs in 2024 began to taper in mid-2025, giving developers in major hubs like Toronto and Montreal more breathing room. Still, margins in residential construction remain tight due to material and labour costs. By contrast, industrial real estate like warehouse space in southern Ontario or logistics sites near Vancouver’s port continues to show healthy returns.
Developers are shifting focus toward segments that offer rental stability or fast occupancy. In that context, profit in 2026 may not come from large-scale growth but from careful portfolio management and reduced vacancy rates.
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